IMF: Turkey's Disinflation Program Delivers Results as Economy Remains Resilient
IMF: Turkey’s disinflation program delivers results as economy remains resilient
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has positively assessed Turkey’s economic program, noting that the country’s strategy to reduce inflation is delivering real results while sustaining stable economic growth.
According to the IMF’s 2025 Article IV consultation:
- Inflation fell from 49.4% in September 2024 to 30.9% by December 2025.
- Turkey’s GDP is projected to grow 4.1% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.
- End-of-year 2026 inflation is expected to reach 23%.
The Fund also highlighted a stronger demand for the Turkish lira and strengthened international reserves.
📉 Inflation 49.4% → 30.9% · GDP growth 4.1% (2025) · reserves strengthen
Balancing disinflation with growth
The IMF emphasized that Turkey’s current policy mix — tight monetary policy, moderate wage growth, and broadly neutral fiscal policy — supports both gradual price stabilization and steady economic activity.
⚖️ Policy mix: tight monetary + moderate wages + neutral fiscal = disinflation + growth.
Risks and reform priorities
Despite progress, the IMF warned of persistent external risks:
- global trade uncertainty
- regional conflicts
- potential energy price shocks
- adverse weather events
Structural reform priorities include:
- broadening the tax base
- improving budget efficiency and phasing out energy subsidies
- labor market and education reforms
- SME support
- increasing the share of renewable energy
🔧 Key reforms: tax base, energy subsidies, labor, education, renewables, SME support.
Long-term outlook
IMF projections indicate:
- Average annual growth of around 4% through 2031
- Inflation declining to 19% in 2027 and 15% thereafter
- Unemployment at 8.3% in 2026
The financial sector remains resilient, though the IMF stressed the importance of central bank independence, a simplified monetary policy framework, and ongoing vigilance on FX and liquidity risks.
GDP ~4% avg · inflation 23% (2026) → 19% (2027) → 15% · unemployment 8.3% (2026)
⚠️ External risks: trade uncertainty, conflicts, energy shocks, climate events.
“Central bank independence and a simplified monetary framework remain essential for sustained stability.” — IMF Article IV, 2025
Source: International Monetary Fund · 2025 Article IV consultation · February 2026
