Turkey to Increase Turkmenistan Gas Imports in 2026
Turkey intends to resume and subsequently increase its imports of natural gas from Turkmenistan starting in 2026. The announcement was made by Turkey’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, who underscored the strategic importance of diversifying the country’s energy supply sources.
Swap Supplies via Iran: A Temporary Bridge
As of March 1, 2025, Turkmenistan officially commenced natural gas supplies to Turkey under a swap agreement via Iran. This mechanism allowed Ankara to access Turkmen gas without the need for direct pipeline infrastructure, utilizing Iran’s transit capacity.
The swap arrangement was viewed as a temporary but important solution, strengthening Ankara’s energy security and reducing dependence on a limited number of suppliers.
The Long-Term Vision: A Direct Trans-Caspian Pipeline
Looking beyond swaps, Turkey has laid out more ambitious plans. In May 2025, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the goal of establishing direct imports of Turkmen gas via a pipeline across the Caspian Sea within the next five years.
Ankara views the Caspian route as a transformative, long-term strategic project. However, implementation hinges on:
- Complex international agreements between littoral states.
- Significant capital investment and financing.
- Resolution of environmental and legal issues, particularly regarding the Caspian Sea's status.
Recent Turbulence: Suspension and Disagreements
The nascent partnership faced a setback in late October 2025 when the state-owned concern Turkmengaz announced the suspension of gas supplies to Turkey.
According to company head Babayev, the primary reasons were:
- The short-term nature of the initial contract.
- Disagreements over gas pricing.
- Uncoordinated supply volumes.
Turkish authorities, however, interpret this suspension as a temporary stage in ongoing negotiations, expressing confidence that cooperation will resume under revised, mutually agreeable terms.
Strategic Implications for Turkey’s Energy Market
The successful resumption and planned increase of Turkmen gas imports in 2026 are poised to significantly impact Turkey's energy landscape:
- Strengthen Energy Security: Adding a major new source to the supply portfolio.
- Reduce Supplier Dependence: Diminishing reliance on traditional major exporters.
- Enhance Regional Hub Role: Solidifying Turkey's position as a key energy transit and trading corridor.
According to representatives from the Ministry of Energy, negotiations with the Turkmen side are ongoing, and reaching a sustainable compromise remains a top priority for both nations. The coming months will be critical in determining whether this strategic energy partnership can move from plan to reality.
