Turkey 2026 Minimum Wage: 28,500 Lira Forecast by Experts
Türkiye’s Minimum Wage Expected to Reach 28,500 Lira in 2026, Experts Say
As Türkiye prepares for the December meeting of its Minimum Wage Determination Commission, economic analysts are converging on a single forecast: the country's minimum wage in 2026 is likely to rise to around 28,500 Turkish lira.
The upcoming decision will impact millions of workers who depend on the minimum wage, while also influencing salary negotiations across the private sector.
Inflation Remains the Key Driver
Although estimates vary, inflation remains the dominant factor shaping wage expectations.
The Central Bank of Türkiye's mid-term inflation target for 2026 is 16%, with a projected range between 13% and 19%. When combined with social security adjustments, analysts expect the total increase to fall within 20–30%.
Experts Align Around One Figure
İsa Karakaş (SGK Expert)
Karakaş expects a rise of 25–30%, stating that the minimum wage is likely to fall between 27,000 and 28,000 TL, with the most realistic midpoint around 28,500 TL.
Filiz Eryılmaz (Economist)
Eryılmaz notes that last year's methodology may be applied again. Her scenarios range from 27,187 TL to 27,851 TL.
Özgür Erdursun (Social Security Expert)
Erdursun highlights that most analysts now agree the new minimum wage will approach 28,000 TL, with 28,500 TL emerging as a central reference point.
Projected Scenarios for 2026
Increase Rate | Estimated Minimum Wage
21% | 26,745 TL
22% | 26,966 TL
23% | 27,187 TL
24% | 27,408 TL
25% | 27,630 TL
26% | 27,851 TL
27% | 28,072 TL
28% | 28,293 TL
29% | 28,514 TL
30% | 28,735 TL
The consensus points to a 28,000–28,500 TL minimum wage for 2026.
Decision Expected in December
The final figure will be announced following the Commission's meeting in December.
Given the economic context and expert assessments, Türkiye's 2026 minimum wage is expected to exceed 27,000 TL, firmly approaching the 28,000 TL benchmark — a development set to shape the country's economic agenda heading into the new year.
"The upcoming minimum wage decision will significantly impact Türkiye's economic landscape, affecting millions of workers and setting the tone for private sector wage negotiations throughout 2026."
