Turkey Real Estate in 2026: Recovery, Cycles & Investment Guide
In 2026, Turkey looks to investors not like a chaotic news stream, but like a very clear textbook on market cycles. The Central Bank rate has passed its peak, inflation is steadily slowing, the real estate market is setting transaction records, and real prices continue to adjust after the turbulent 2020–2022 period.
Looking at this as a series of random events evokes emotions. Looking through the lens of an investment cycle reveals a clear picture: Turkey has emerged from recession and is entering a recovery phase . This is the phase where maximum future returns are formed.
In this article, we will analyze the current state of Turkey's real estate market, strategies that work in 2026–2028, and which properties have the highest growth potential.
1. Why you cannot ignore cycles in Turkey
Real estate in Turkey remains one of the main tools for preserving and growing capital. But this does not mean you can buy anything at any time.
Mistakes of the last decade were similar across countries. Investors entered:
- at the peak of local hype;
- into projects without safety margins;
- expecting perpetual price growth.
They then faced recession, high rates, and market corrections. The problem was not the real estate itself, but entering at the wrong phase of the cycle and choosing properties “by mood” rather than market logic.
The cycle is always the same:
- Recovery
- Expansion
- Euphoria
- Recession
Turkey is now transitioning “recession → recovery” . This is a key moment for investors looking at foreign real estate in 2026, seeking entries with higher potential returns.
2. Where Turkey's economy is heading: central bank rate and inflation
2.1. What had happened by the end of 2025
By the end of 2025, Turkey showed a clear macroeconomic picture:
- the key rate dropped from peak levels to 38%;
- inflation slowed to 30.9% by December;
- monetary conditions remained tight, and the real rate turned positive;
- the Central Bank publicly stated its readiness to maintain high real rates until inflation sustainably declines.
At the same time:
- the economy grew by approximately 3.5%;
- tourism generated record revenue;
- domestic consumption and investments started to recover;
- the lira weakened without sharp crashes like those in 2022–2023.
For investors, this is a typical end of the recession phase, when the rate has peaked, inflation is declining, growth is moderate, and confidence in monetary policy is returning.
2.2. Where we are in the cycle: recovery
Mapping the classic cycle model:
- CB peak rate = recession bottom;
- first sustainable decline = start of recovery.
As of early 2026, Turkey is already in the early recovery phase .
The Central Bank plans a cautious rate reduction to 25% by the end of 2026, and further to 15–10% by 2027–2028 – a typical trajectory from recovery to expansion.
3. How the cycle looks in Turkey's real estate market
3.1. Record transactions during real price corrections
In 2025, the housing market reached a historical high:
- about 1.68 million transactions per year;
- double-digit growth compared to 2024;
- yet real prices adjusted downward after inflation.
In other words, in lira terms, real estate appreciated, but inflation rose slightly faster. For owners, this meant weak inflation protection. For new investors, it meant the opportunity to enter after a two-year real price correction
3.2. Rental income and yields
Meanwhile, rental rates in 2025 rose by roughly 50%, faster than prices for many housing categories.
This strengthens the investment logic:
- for those buying for long-term rent
- for those entering ready-to-rent properties seeking immediate cash flow
- for those considering seaside complexes as "income + inflation protection" tools
Particularly interesting:
- seaside apartments in Turkey
- garden duplexes and apartments in complexes with infrastructure
- villas in Turkey for rent and vacation
4. Investor strategy in Turkey for 2026-2028
Assuming Turkey is at the start of recovery, the action plan is as follows.
4.1. 2026: entering the recovery phase
Key investor goals:
- lock in entry after real price correction;
- use high rates as a cycle bottom indicator;
- build a portfolio of liquid properties before mass demand.
Recommended formats:
- 1+1 and 2+1 apartments in complexes with infrastructure
- pool, security, fitness
- high tenant demand
- easier resale on the next growth wave
- garden duplexes – 2026 trend
- more privacy and land than an apartment
- without all expenses of a classic villa
- perfect mix of rental and personal living
- ready or nearly ready properties
- minimal construction risk
- immediate rental potential
- transparent returns
It makes sense to buy not the "cheapest square meter," but a balance of:
- location
- complex quality
- property manageability
- neighborhood prospects
4.2. 2027–2028: transition to expansion
As the CB rate falls, mortgages revive, and demand broadens, the market enters the expansion phase.
For investors, this means:
- price growth moving from flat to sustainable
- increased interest from both local and foreign buyers
- greater importance of quality projects easier to sell in a rising market
At this stage, it makes sense to:
- hold properties bought during recovery
- selectively acquire new projects with clear delivery dates
- reassess the portfolio and prepare for partial profit-taking before euphoria
5. Which regions of Turkey are stronger in this cycle
Some areas in recovery phase are potentially more attractive than others.
Alanya
- seaside resort properties
- strong year-round rental demand
- new high-level complexes
Links for detailed exploration:
Antalya
- major seaside metropolis
- international airport
- high demand for long-term rent and residence
- balance of city and resort lifestyle
Istanbul
- financial and cultural center
- complex but promising market
- using the cycle is crucial to avoid local euphoria in specific districts
Mersin
- growing port city
- lower entry threshold
- focus on long-term growth and urbanization
Bodrum – premium market outside mass cycle
Bodrum often falls out of classic overviews, but it is a conscious, separate segment. Not about recovery or euphoria in the classic sense,
it follows the logic of scarcity and image, not mass demand.
Suitable for investors who value:
- capital preservation;
- rare properties;
- long-term value rather than turnover.
6. How to reduce risks in the recovery phase
Even in the correct phase, mistakes are possible. Main risks:
- projects without sufficient financing
- legal risks related to land or permits
- unreliable developers or agencies without licenses
Minimal protection measures:
- check company and broker licenses
- work with a large agency that has gone through multiple cycles
- high transaction volume
- developed after-sales service
- legal department
- select property according to the goal
- investment
- residence
- "backup location"
7. How RestProperty applies cycles in Turkey
RestProperty has been operating in Turkey's real estate market since 2003. During this time, the company has gone through several full cycles: recovery, expansion, euphoria, recession, and a new growth entry.
Our approach for 2026 is based on cycle logic, not emotions:
- we analyze Central Bank decisions and macroeconomics
- we select formats that work specifically in the recovery phase
- we deliberately do not promote overheated projects, even if they look appealing in pictures
- we combine seaside properties, city apartments, and luxury residences for different strategies
Importantly, RestProperty works beyond Turkey. For diversification, we offer:
Investors can thus build a portfolio across multiple countries, distributing capital according to cycle phases.
8. Conclusion: Who Wins in the Turkish Market in 2026
In 2026, winners are those who:
- look at the Central Bank rate and inflation, not just media headlines
- understand that Turkey is already in recovery, not "in eternal crisis"
- choose properties according to the market phase and their investment goal
- work with a professional partner with a license and experience through several cycles
If you are considering investing in Turkey as a way to profit in the 2026–2028 cycle, it makes sense to discuss your strategy with RestProperty experts: determine your budget, investment horizon, country, and property type.
This way, you are buying not just a "beautiful apartment by the sea," but the right phase of the market.
