Türkiye Faces Record-Low Birth Rate and Population Ageing
Türkiye Faces Record-Low Birth Rate and Growing Demographic Challenges
Türkiye is entering a period of significant demographic change as birth rates continue to decline. According to a report by Poland's Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), the country recorded its lowest number of births on record in 2023, raising concerns about long-term population trends and economic development.
In 2023, only 958,000 children were born in Türkiye, while the total fertility rate fell to 1.51, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
Population Is Getting Older
The report highlights the rapid ageing of Türkiye's population.
- The average age has increased from 25.8 years in 2000 to 34 years today.
- By the 2040s, the number of people aged 65 and older is expected to equal the number of children under the age of 15.
The changing age structure is expected to place increasing pressure on healthcare, pensions and the labour market.
UN Population Forecast
According to United Nations projections, Türkiye's population will continue growing for the next two decades before beginning a gradual decline.
- The population is expected to peak at approximately 91.4 million around 2047.
- By 2100, it could decline to around 65.3 million.
These projections make the government's long-term goal of reaching a population of 100 million increasingly difficult to achieve.
Government Concern
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has described the declining birth rate as an "existential threat" to the country, emphasizing the importance of reversing current demographic trends.
Turkish authorities have repeatedly stated that maintaining a healthy birth rate is essential for the country's long-term economic strength and social stability.
Why the Trend Matters
Experts warn that declining birth rates, an ageing population and the emigration of young professionals could significantly affect Türkiye's future.
Potential consequences include:
- Labour shortages;
- Slower economic growth;
- Higher social security and healthcare costs;
- Greater pressure on public finances;
- Challenges for long-term national development.
Demographic experts believe Türkiye may need to introduce new family support measures and social policies to encourage higher birth rates in the coming years.
The latest figures underline one of the most important long-term challenges facing Türkiye, with demographic change expected to influence the country's economy and society for decades.
