Türkiye Inflation Forecast: 20% Target for Early 2026 | Simsek

Türkiye's Annual Inflation to Drop to 20% Range in Early 2026: Finance Minister

Türkiye's macroeconomic stability and reform program aims to reduce inflation to single digits, increase predictability, Mehmet Simsek says

Gokhan Ergocun | ISTANBUL

Türkiye's annual inflation will likely be at figures in the 20% range as of February, when January figures will be released, the Turkish treasury and finance minister said Thursday.

"Even with some delay, inflation targets will at least be met at the upper end of the band. Disinflation will continue in 2026,” said Mehmet Simsek, speaking at the fifth Future of Finance Summit in Istanbul.

"If you look at inflation, we went from around 64%-65% over the last three years to 44%. Then this year, it's currently at 31%. Next year's target range is between 13%-19%, but the market expects it to be in the 20s. Let me reiterate for next year: barring any additional shocks, we see the upper end of the target range as quite achievable."

Simsek said that Türkiye's macroeconomic stability and reform program aims to:

• Reduce inflation to single digits,
• Increase predictability,
• Achieve a sustainable current account balance,
• Ensure that all these gains are permanent.

Touching on the structural transformation programs the country implemented in this context, he explained that the first phase of the three-phase program was a control period during which certain risks were managed and that the second phase addressed imbalances.

“The third phase was to achieve the targets permanently through structural transformation. When you look at the first phase, the rule-based market economy was largely established,” he said.

"It was important that inflation did not get out of control. There were many issues such as reserve accumulation and contingent liabilities. We managed those issues in the first year.”

Context of the Reform Program

The minister outlined the sequential focus of the government's economic strategy, moving from immediate stabilization to long-term structural change. This phased approach is designed to create a foundation for sustainable growth beyond just managing crises.

Important: The minister emphasized that meeting the inflation targets, even at the upper band, is contingent on the absence of additional external economic shocks.

By anchoring expectations and implementing a rule-based market economy, the government seeks to transition from a high-inflation environment to one where price stability fosters investment and long-term planning.