Turkey’s 2026 Inflation Forecast Raised to 28%

📈 Türkiye’s Central Bank has raised its forecast for inflation at the end of 2026. According to the updated estimates, annual inflation could reach 28%.

Central Bank of Türkiye Governor Fatih Karahan announced the revised forecast on August 13 while presenting the regulator’s latest inflation report. The previous forecast for the end of 2026 was 26%.

📊 Inflation forecast revised for the first time in several months

The Central Bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast by 2 percentage points. At the same time, its interim year-end inflation target remains at 24%.

Fatih Karahan said the regulator expects inflationary pressure to continue easing. According to the updated estimates, inflation is expected to fall to 15% by the end of 2027 and 9% by the end of 2028.

📉 Actual inflation remains above the forecast

Annual inflation in Türkiye stood at 31.75% in July. This means that a significant slowdown in price growth will be required to reach the 28% forecast by December.

The regulator linked the revision partly to changes in external price conditions. Energy prices and other commodity costs are among the factors affecting inflation expectations.

💰 Market expectations are higher

At the same time, market participants remain less optimistic than the Central Bank. In the August survey, financial market specialists forecast inflation in Türkiye at 29.43% by the end of 2026.

In July, the market forecast stood at 29.21%, meaning expectations deteriorated slightly over the month.

🏠 What does this mean for residents and investors in Türkiye?

Inflation remains one of the key factors affecting the cost of living, rents, property prices, construction expenses and investment returns in Türkiye.

• 📈 Rising prices continue to affect the cost of goods and services.
• 💼 Businesses take inflation expectations into account when setting prices and planning expenses.
• 🏗️ For the property market, construction costs, rents and price-per-square-metre trends remain particularly important.
• 📊 The gap between the Central Bank’s forecast and market expectations shows that participants remain cautious about the pace of disinflation.

⚠️ Important: The Central Bank’s forecast is an estimate of future price dynamics, not a guaranteed result. Actual inflation will depend on domestic demand, the Turkish lira exchange rate, energy prices, food costs and other economic factors.

🔮 What happens next?

The Turkish regulator continues to pursue a policy aimed at reducing inflation and says it will maintain a tight monetary policy until sustainable price stability is achieved.

However, the revision of the forecast from 26% to 28% indicates that the path toward lower inflation could take longer than previously expected.

For people living, working or investing in Türkiye, future inflation trends will remain directly relevant to everyday expenses, rents, borrowing costs and the real estate market.